These are the notes I made whilst watching the video recording of Paul Meehl’s philosophy of science lectures. This is the seventh episode (a list of all the videos can he found here). Please note that these posts are not designed to replace or be used instead of the actual videos (I highly recommend you watch them). They are to be read alongside to help you understand what was said. I also do not include everything that he said (just the main/most complex points).
- Example for Lyken’s crud factor:
T is literally true, two auxiliary theories (A1 and A2) both of which have a .9 probability of being true, cp clause has a .9 probability of being true, and the conditions have a .9 probability of being true. What’s the probability (given the above) that o1⊃o2? .94=.66. Chances of getting that result because of theory being true is 2/3 even if you had perfect power. With 80% the probability is .52 of the observation coming from the theory.